78 lines
4.5 KiB
Markdown
78 lines
4.5 KiB
Markdown
---
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title: Cramér-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB)
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created: 2026-04-17
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updated: 2026-04-17
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type: concept
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tags: [machine-learning, benchmark]
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sources: [raw/papers/hbs-cramerrao-bound-notes.md]
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---
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# Cramér-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB)
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## Definition
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The Cramér-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) states that for **any unbiased estimator** of a population parameter $\theta$, the lowest possible variance is the reciprocal of the Fisher Information $I(\theta)$:
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$$\text{Var}(\hat{\theta}) \geq \frac{1}{I(\theta)}$$
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It represents a fundamental limit in statistical estimation: no matter how clever your estimation method is, you cannot beat this bound.
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## Key Concepts
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### 1. The Score Function
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The score $g(\theta; \mathbf{x})$ is the derivative of the log-likelihood with respect to the parameter:
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$$g(\theta; \mathbf{x}) = \frac{\partial}{\partial \theta} \log f(\mathbf{x} \mid \theta)$$
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- It measures the "force" the data exerts on the parameter estimate.
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- **Crucial property:** $\mathbb{E}[g(\theta; \mathbf{x})] = 0$ (under regularity conditions).
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### 2. Fisher Information
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Fisher Information $I(\theta)$ is the variance of the score function:
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$$I(\theta) = \text{Var}(g(\theta; \mathbf{x})) = \mathbb{E}\left[ \left( \frac{\partial}{\partial \theta} \log f(\mathbf{x} \mid \theta) \right)^2 \right]$$
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**Alternative expression (via curvature):**
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$$I(\theta) = -\mathbb{E}\left[ \frac{\partial^2}{\partial \theta^2} \log f(\mathbf{x} \mid \theta) \right]$$
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This connects information directly to the curvature of the log-likelihood function. A sharper peak (higher curvature) means higher information and a tighter bound.
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**Properties:**
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- $I(\theta)$ is proportional to sample size $n$ ($I_n = n \cdot I_1$).
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- Higher variance in the data means lower information per data point.
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### 3. Observed vs. Expected Information
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- **Expected Information:** Uses the true parameter and expectation over all possible data. Formula-based.
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- **Observed Information:** Uses the actual observed data and the estimated parameter $\hat{\theta}$. Computed from the Hessian of the log-likelihood at $\hat{\theta}$.
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- In practice (especially in MLE), standard errors are calculated using the observed information.
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## Classic Examples
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### Normal Distribution (Mean Estimation)
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- **Parameter:** $\mu$
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- **Score:** $g(\mu) = \frac{n}{\sigma^2}(\bar{x} - \mu)$
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- **Fisher Information:** $I = \frac{n}{\sigma^2}$
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- **CRLB:** $\frac{\sigma^2}{n}$
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- **Conclusion:** The sample mean $\bar{x}$ is the "best" unbiased estimator, as its variance exactly hits the bound.
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### Binomial Distribution (Proportion Estimation)
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- **Parameter:** $\pi$
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- **Score:** $g(\pi) = \frac{k}{\pi} - \frac{n-k}{1-\pi}$
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- **Fisher Information:** $I = \frac{n}{\pi(1-\pi)}$
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- **CRLB:** $\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}$
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- **Conclusion:** The sample proportion $\hat{\pi} = k/n$ is the optimal unbiased estimator.
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## Connection to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)
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- MLE is **consistent** and **asymptotically efficient**.
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- As sample size $n \to \infty$, the variance of the MLE approaches the CRLB: $\text{Var}(\hat{\theta}_{\text{MLE}}) \approx 1/I(\theta)$.
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- This is why standard errors reported by MLE software are calculated as $1/\sqrt{I_{\text{observed}}}$.
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## Role in Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT)
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In CAT, the CRLB dictates the theoretical limit of measurement precision.
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- Each question contributes a certain amount of Fisher Information $I_i(\theta)$.
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- The test continues until the accumulated information $I(\theta) = \sum I_i(\theta)$ is large enough that $1/I(\theta)$ (the minimum possible variance) is below a predefined threshold.
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- **选题策略 (Item Selection):** Choosing the item with the maximum $I_i(\theta)$ at the current ability estimate $\hat{\theta}$ is equivalent to driving the CRLB down as fast as possible.
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## Multidimensional Extension (Information Matrix)
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For a vector of parameters $\boldsymbol{\theta}$, the Fisher Information becomes a matrix $\mathbf{I}(\boldsymbol{\theta})$. The CRLB states that the covariance matrix of any unbiased estimator satisfies:
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$$\text{Cov}(\hat{\boldsymbol{\theta}}) \succeq \mathbf{I}(\boldsymbol{\theta})^{-1}$$
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(where $\succeq$ denotes positive semi-definiteness).
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## 相关概念
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- [[computerized-adaptive-testing]] — CAT 的核心目标是最小化能力估计方差，CRLB 提供了理论下界，选题策略本质上是在最大化 Fisher 信息以快速逼近该下界。
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- [[eml-operator]] — EML 树的梯度优化依赖于对参数空间的曲率估计，与 CRLB 中 Fisher 信息作为对数似然曲率的数学本质相通。
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